Future Projection of Precipitation Changes in the Júcar and Segura River Basins (Iberian Peninsula) by CMIP5 GCMs Local Downscaling

The basins of the Júcar and Segura rivers, on Mediterranean coast Iberian Peninsula, present a special water problem are particular interest regarding climate change. These very vulnerable to possible scenario decreasing resources. Recent studies historic rainfall since 1955 have indicated an ongoing loss precipitation in their headwaters, especially case river. aim study is perform projections for variable several future periods (2021–2040, 2051–2070, 2081–2100) emission scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 8.5) within River Basin authorities. For this purpose, set CMIP5 global models been used, as well CDRD-HR-EIP-1955-2016 database, source local observed information. This database comprises nearly 900 series both has used recent determine trends change these basins. A statistical downscaling all available applied using LARS-WG method. results, although according model show continuation patterns future, already historical series. results also predict clear reduction long term. However, torrential tends increase coastal areas relation that short-term predictions. due high spatial resolution, great use small-scale hydrological planning (regional local), which one current challenges modeling.